魏尚进：竞争性加息的风险及其应对

■本文选自《复旦金融评论》

■作者：魏尚进 复旦大学泛海国际金融学院访问教授、哥伦比亚大学终身讲席教授、亚洲开发银行前首席经济学家

■公众号：复旦金融评论

魏尚进

复旦大学泛海国际金融学院访问教授

哥伦比亚大学终身讲席教授

亚洲开发银行前首席经济学家

为了对抗国内的高通胀，美欧英等国央行大幅加息似乎情有可原。例如，如果考虑到美联储过去很长一段时间里低估了美国通胀的持续性，那么美联储主席鲍威尔近期关于即使有经济衰退的风险也要继续加息的承诺，对于美国而言就合乎情理。为了确保美国通胀的预期能维持在较低水平，美联储宁愿措施过激，也不愿措施不足。在大西洋彼岸，欧洲央行和英国央行也许诺要提高利率，以应对本国几十年来最高的通胀水平。

轮番加息的问题在于，任何主要央行的加息都会通过汇率机制向其他国家输出通胀，迫使其他央行加息的幅度超过它们本应做的。比方说，美联储提高利率时，英国央行和欧洲央行如果没有做出回应，英镑和欧元就会对美元贬值，导致其进口价格上涨，加剧原本已经很高的通货膨胀。如果英国央行和欧洲央行将进一步提高利率作为回应，就会将一些的通胀输回美国和其他经济体。其结果是导致各国之间利率螺旋式上升，对全球产出和就业的破坏性比这些国家共同希望看到的更大。

另外，对于66个将本国货币与美元挂钩的较小经济体——尤其是那些没有重大资本管制的经济体，如中国香港、巴拿马和沙特阿拉伯——每次美国加息时，其利率往往会自动跟着上升，即使加息对这些经济体的经济前景有害。

由于俄乌冲突和随之而来的能源和食品价格飙升，全球经济增长已经在放缓，一波不断上升的利率可能会将世界经济推向负增长。反过来，如果通过一些政策协调，全球主要央行可能可以通过不那么激进的升息策略来达到控制通胀目标，而不是依靠各央行独自努力。不过地缘局势紧张加剧，一些主要经济体之间的不信任加深，会使当前政策协调更加困难。

值得庆幸的是，全球化的竞争性加息还没有发生。世界第二和第三大经济体的中国和日本，其各自的通货膨胀率目前均低于3%，远好于美国、英国和欧元区的8%或更高的通货膨胀率。这意味着中国和日本目前不需要为了应对美联储、欧洲央行和英国央行而提高利率。事实上，中国政府正在考虑降低利率以刺激经济增长，而几十年来更担心通货紧缩而不是通货膨胀的日本决策层似乎也不太担心。目前看来，中国和日本似乎都愿意接受本币贬值。

但这种情况可能会改变。俄乌冲突还没有结束的迹象，能源价格的大幅下降预计不会很快。中国和日本都是石油和天然气的进口大国，因此与能源价格上涨的受益者美国相比，能源价格的飙升更让它们担心。虽然目前中国和日本的通胀率明显低于其他主要经济体，但仍在快速上升。中国的通胀率自今年年初以来增长了两倍，年化通胀率从0.8%增至2.9%[1]，而同期日本的通胀率则从0.5%增至2.6%[2]，增长了五倍。如果这种趋势持续下去，输入型通胀也将很快成为两国的主要政策关注点。

各国政策制定者应抓住合作的机会，以免为时过晚。2009—2010年全球金融危机的协调应对模式为此类合作提供了有益的参照。当时对其他国家搭便车的担忧，最初阻碍了各个经济体在财政刺激方面采取足够大胆的行动。但各国之间以及它们与中国之间在20国集团等论坛上的讨论缓解了这些担忧，中国自己的大规模（四万亿）的经济刺激提高了中国对欧洲、美国和其他地区商品的需求，也使得其他国家更愿意推出自己的大规模刺激计划。这一多边行动帮助缓解了当时的危机。

这一次，不断升级的地缘紧张局势和美国前总统特朗普的贸易战遗留问题，加深了一些全球经济超级大国之间的不信任。虽然这次的通胀与2009—2010年的衰退相比，经济挑战的性质不同，但政策协调的必要性同样重要，其目的也是为了尽力减少产出和就业损失。如果成功，这也将改善全球应对气候变化所需的政策协调的机会。

□视觉 | 葛雯瑄

Shang-Jin Wei

Aggressive interest-rate increases designed to combat high inflation at home, make sense in isolation. For example, in view of the Fed’s prolonged underestimation of the persistence of US inflation, Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent vow to continue hiking rates, despite the risk of recession, seems reasonable. To ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored at a low level, the Fed would prefer to err on the side of being too aggressive, rather than risk doing too little. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) have also vowed to raise interest rates to deal with their own highest inflation in decades.

The problem with this approach is that an interest-rate hike by any major central bank has the effect of exporting inflation to other countries through an exchange-rate channel, forcing other central banks to raise interest rates more than they otherwise would have done. For example, when the Fed raises its interest rate, if the BOE and the ECB do not respond, the pound and the euro would depreciate against the US dollar, leading to higher import prices and adding to the already high inflation. If the BOE and ECB respond by further raising their interest rates, they export a bit extra inflation back to the United States and to other economies. The result is an interest-rate spiral that is more damaging to world output and employment than these countries may wish to see collectively.

For the 66 smaller economies that peg their currencies to the US dollar – especially those without significant capital controls, like Hong Kong, Panama, and Saudi Arabia – local interest rates tend to rise automatically whenever the US raises its interest rate, even when higher rates are harmful to their economic prospects.

With global growth already slowing, owing to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the accompanying surge in energy and food prices, a wave of ever higher interest rates might push the world economy toward negative growth. With some coordination, the world’s major central banks might achieve the goal of controlling inflation with a less aggressive strategy than each doing its best in isolation. But heightened geopolitical tensions and deepening mistrust among some major economies are making policy coordination harder.

Fortunately, a globalized competitive interest rate hike has not happened yet. In China and Japan – the world’s second- and third-largest economies, respectively – inflation is currently under 3%, compared to 8% or more in the US, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone. This means they do not need to raise their interest rates in response to the Fed, the ECB, and the BOE. In fact, the Chinese authorities are contemplating lowering interest rates to spur growth, and Japanese policymakers – who for decades have been more worried about deflation than inflation – don’t seem overly concerned. For the moment, both countries appear willing to accept a depreciation of their currencies.

But this could change. With no end in sight for the war in Ukraine, energy prices are not expected to drop significantly anytime soon. China and Japan are both big importers of oil and gas, so surging energy prices worry them more than they worry the US (a beneficiary of higher energy prices). While current Chinese and Japanese inflation rates are significantly lower than in other major economies, they are still rising fast: China’s has tripled since the beginning of the year, from an annualized rate of 0.8% to 2.9%[1], and Japan’s quintupled from 0.5% to 2.6% over the same period[2]. If this trend continues, imported inflation will soon become a major policy concern for them, too.

Policymakers should seize the opportunity for cooperation before it’s too late. The coordinated response to the 2009-2010 global financial crisis provides a useful model for such cooperation. Back then, concerns about free-riding by other countries including China initially created a disincentive for each individual economy to take a sufficiently bold action on fiscal stimulus. But discussions among each other and with China at the G20 and other fora eased those concerns, and China’s large stimulus package raised demand for goods from Europe, the US, and elsewhere, making it more attractive for other countries to come up with their own sizeable stimulus packages. This multilateral effort helped mitigate the crisis.

This time around, escalating geopolitical tensions and the legacy of former US President Donald Trump’s trade war have deepened the mistrust among some of the world’s economic superpowers. While the nature of economic challenge is different (inflation this time versus recession during 2009-2010), the need for policy coordination is similarly important to minimize output and job losses. If successful, this will also improve the chance for the policy coordination needed to win the global fight against climate change.

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