就实论事 | 是什么阻碍了中美关系？

原创 CGTN CGTN

Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group, wrote in his book The Power of Crisis "the U.S. and China won't be allies anytime soon. But if they can become partners in addressing global threats to human health, climate change, and profoundly disruptive new technologies, then we will finally have the governance that globalization has never given us."

欧亚集团总裁、创始人伊恩•布雷默在《危机的力量》一书中写到：“美国和中国不会很快成为盟友。但是，如果他们能够在应对全球健康威胁、气候变化和新科技对现有秩序的冲击等方面成为合作伙伴，那么我们将创造出现有全球化体系下全球治理的新高”。

Could China and the U.S. indeed become partners like Bremmer wrote and then can we have this global governance? Let's start with some basics. Together, China and the U.S. account for more than 40 percent of global GDP. They are the two largest trading countries, the top patent applicants, the two largest manufacturers. The two consume more than 40 percent of global energy. They are the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping operations; and the list goes on.

中美真的能像布雷默所写的那样成为合作伙伴，并造就他所描述的全球治理么？让我们先来看看一些中美的基本信息。中美两国经济总量之和占全球比重超40%。中美是两个最大的贸易国、专利申请最多的两国、制造业最强的两国。中美消耗全球40%以上的能源。两国是联合国维和行动最大的贡献者。类似的例子不胜枚举。

In a recent interview with the Guardian about climate change, the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry said: "Absent China, are we getting the best hope for where we want to try to go? Not, not in my judgement." So yes, partnership between China and the U.S. is indispensable for global governance. But what's standing in the way of that?

美国总统气候问题特使约翰•克里在近期接受《卫报》就气候问题的采访中说：“如果没有中国，我们是否还有希望达成我们想达成的目标？没有，在我看来没有”。所以说，中美之间的伙伴关系在全球治理中不可或缺。但是，什么在阻碍两国发展这种伙伴关系呢？

Professor at Columbia University Jeffrey Sachs commented that "right now, the United States is raising tensions with China. It is doing so deliberately, dangerously, and provocatively." He said "the U.S. government, I should say, the American people, not so much. But the U.S. government thinks that we are in a grand competition with China, that it's a devastating competition, that we need to contain China" and what we need is dialogue. "We need better understanding. We need the leaders of China and the United States to meet routinely. We need governments to carry out exchanges routinely, so that this is a normal relationship," Sachs stated.

哥伦比亚大学教授杰弗里•萨克斯认为“当前，美国正在加剧与中国的紧张关系。美国这样做是故意的、危险的、带有挑衅性质的”。他说“我这里说的是美国政府，而不是所有美国人民，美国政府觉得，中美正处于一场声势浩大、你死我活的竞赛中，美国必须遏制中国”，而现在最需要的是对话。“中美两国需要对话，需要更好地理解对方。中美领导人之间，中美政府间应建立起常态化会晤机制，让中美关系正常化”，萨克斯说到。

In political science, there's this theory about agency. Broadly speaking, it treats politics as constituted by individual agents and these individual agents could act based on their own interests and affect real change. Over the last several years, we've seen that playing out in the U.S. politics. We've seen a leader who dismantles decades' norms for his own fantasy and pushes the two countries into a trade war; politicians aggressively upsetting the balance in the Taiwan Strait just to secure political gains and a legacy; and a section of the population whipped up by hyper-nationalism. They turn against the innocents – some against their own people.

在政治学中，一直有关于个体影响体制的讨论。大致来讲，它将政治视为由个体构成，这些个体会根据自身利益行动，并对体制产生实质的改变。过去的几年中，我们已经看到这种情况在美国政坛上演。我们看到领导人为自己的幻想而打破几十年的规则，将中美置于贸易战中；我们看到政客为自己的政治利益和政治遗产而大肆破坏台海平衡；我们看到超级民族主义煽动一部分民众，致使他们视一部分无辜群众为敌，甚至视自己的同胞为敌。

Bremmer commented in an interview that "In fact, I would argue that the U.S. is more politically dysfunctional right now than all of the other G7 advanced industrial economies. And you see that with the event of January 6th; you see it with the Democrats and the Republicans treating each other as the enemy internally. And that's unfortunately only getting worse. So, it's been coming for decades now. There are some people trying to fix it, but no one believes this is going to be resolved in the next ten years. So, it's a reality, it's a fundamental constraint we have to deal with."

布雷默在采访中说：“实际上，我认为美国现在的政治失调比所有其他G7发达工业经济体都要严重。你可以从1月6日美国国会暴乱中看到这一点；你可以从民主党和共和党将彼此视为敌人中看到这一点。不幸的是，情况只会变得更加糟糕。这种现象已经出现几十年了，有人试图修复它，但没人相信这会在未来十年内得到解决。所以，这是一个现实，是现在我们必须要面对的根本的约束”。

Anti-China becomes easy for politicians, the easy excuse for domestic failures, the easy crowd-rousing platitude in campaigns, the easy "prove" of someone having a grasp on international affairs. But, there's no such thing as a free lunch. There's always a price. The world is paying for it.

“反华”成为了政客们容易利用的抓手：可以作为国内政策失败的借口；可以作为竞选中用来煽动人心的陈词滥调；可以作为自己掌握国际事务的“证明”。但是，世界上没有免费的午餐。任何事情总是有代价的。世界正在为此付出代价。

Bremmer wrote in the book that "the world needs China closer to center stage. It needs Chinese investment. It needs China to remain stable and predictable - and to grow. And if Washington wants to build a pragmatic partnership with Beijing, it should join the rest of the world in recognizing that reality." That's a big reality check for American politicians by a veteran Washington insider. They really should take note of it.

布雷默在书中写道：“世界需要中国更接近舞台的中心。它需要中国的投资，需要中国保持稳定和可预测性，需要中国的经济增长。如果华盛顿想与北京建立务实的伙伴关系，它应该与世界其他国家一样认清这个现实。” 这是来自一位资深的华盛顿政治圈内部人士的警钟。华盛顿政客们真的需要认识到这一点。

推荐阅读：

就实论事 | 疫情的代价

就实论事｜加息无度——偏方怎能愈顽疾

就实论事 | 上合峰会：“就实论事”型国际关系时代的到来