就实论事 | 美国中期选举结果不会改变现实
Hi, I am Einar Tangen and this is Reality Check.
大家好，我是艾那·唐根。欢迎收看《就实论事》。
Around the world, an ongoing cycle of elections are bringing new and in a few cases old leaders into power, As the world eyes turn to the U.S. midterm elections, the talk is about the changing balance of power. The networks are now doing their postmortems. Unsurprisingly, inflation and the economic direction of the country is what really mattered to a nation where 60 percent of the people are living paycheck to paycheck, as inflation eats away at their incomes.
全球正在经历新一轮大选，既有新领导上任，也有老面孔执政。随着世界的目光转向美国中期选举，人们更关注的是权力平衡的变化。电视上都在对中期选举结果进行剖析。毫无意外，通胀和国家经济走向才是这个国家真正重要的问题。这里60%的人过着 “月光族”式的生活，通胀正在侵蚀人们的收入。
There is also lots of discussions about how despite Biden's negative polling, people disliked Trump more, that issues like abortion mattered to women and younger voters, that people were concerned about the political direction of the country. In the end, it will be considered a slight victory for the Democrats, because the red wave turned out to be a red ripple. Midterm elections are referendums on the current president. Over the last 80 years, American voters have not been impressed with the presidents they elected just 2 years before, evidenced by the fact that the president's party has lost seats in 14 of the last 20 midterm elections, in either the House of Representatives or Senate (but usually both). In this case, Biden's lack of popularity and what most consider poor performance didn't punish him as it usually would of.
也有不少讨论认为，尽管拜登民调结果负面，人们还是更讨厌特朗普。堕胎等问题对女性和年轻选民至关重要。人们关心国家的政治走向。最终，中期选举可以视作民主党的一次小胜，因为“红色浪潮”最终只是“红色涟漪”。中期选举是对现任总统的公投。在过去的80年间，美国选民对其两年前选出的总统并不满意。事实证明，总统所在的政党在过往的20次中期选举中曾有14次失去议席，可能是在众议院也可能是在参议院（但通常是同时）。在这种情况下，拜登缺乏人气和公认的糟糕表现并未让其遭受失败的惩罚。
But the real elephant in the room, as they say, is that unfortunately, although the leaders and power shifts, the realities don't. Domestically, the realities are inflation. 31 trillion in national debt, recession possibly turns into a depression, massive economic disparities and political divisions. Over 10 percent of the people live in poverty. The top three wealthiest individuals own more than the bottom 50 percent of the population. Divisions over immigration, race, religion, abortion, access to voting. There is even an attempted insurrection. Internationally, the realities are a global recession, possibly depression, conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Civil unrest brought about by shortages of food, water, and energy. Debts that can not be repaid . A declining post-WWII political and financial order undermined by the nation that created it, the United States, which has prevented global platforms like the UN and G20 from developing and implementing solutions.
但如常言所道 ，让人刻意忽视的问题是，纵然领导人和权力发生了变化， 但现实并未改变，这让人感到遗憾。国内现状是通胀高企，国债突破31万亿美元，经济衰退可能变为大萧条，还有巨大的经济差距和政治分歧。超过10%的人口生活贫困，最富有的前三人拥有的财富超过了底层一半人的财富。在移民、种族 、宗教、 堕胎、选举权等问题上都有分歧。甚至还有一次叛乱未遂。国际上的现状是全球性经济衰退或将演变为大萧条。在中东、非洲和欧洲，冲突不断。由食物、水和能源短缺引发了国内动荡，债务无法偿还。二战后的世界政治和金融秩序衰落，正是创造这个秩序的国家在釜底抽薪。美国阻止联合国和二十国集团等全球机制制定和实施解决方案。
So how did we get to a place where the focus is on changing the leaders and who has power while the important realities are in essence ignored?
那么，我们是如何走到这样一个地步的呢？为什么只把重点放在更换领导人和谁拥有权力上，而重要的现实情况却被忽略了。
As they say money talks and rest walks.
正如人们所说，有钱能使鬼推磨。
Money and politics are never far apart, and in the U.S., money buys power. With money you can hire the best consultants, polling services, advertisements, and create grassroots organizations. It doesn't assure a candidate of success, but it gives you the highest chance. Federal and state spending on the 2022 elections set to top 16.7 billion dollars, the most expensive midterm election ever.
金钱和政治从不分家。在美国，金钱能买到权力。有了钱，你可以聘请最好的顾问，做民意调查、发布广告、创建基层组织。金钱不能保证候选人一定取得成功，但能提供最高的成功率。2022年中期选举的联邦和州政府支出高达167亿美元，是有史以来最昂贵的中期选举。
A bit odd considering the average person is worried about food on the table, paying for gas and their mortgage. So how much has been spent? Who has been providing the money? Billionaires from Silicon Valley, media and old-line manufacturing have been the major financiers — mainly on the conservative side —as the economic situation has made it more difficult for smaller doners. Of the top 25 donors this cycle, 18 are Republican, according to Open Secrets, and they have outspent Democrats by 200 million dollars. Billionaires' made-up 20 percent of total Republican donations compared to 14.5 percent on the Democratic side.
想想吧，普通人还在担心餐桌上的食物，担心油价和房贷，这一花费有些不合时宜。那么到底花了多少钱？是谁在提供这些资金？硅谷大佬、媒体和传统制造业的亿万富翁一直是保守派的主要资助者。实力稍弱的捐助者则因为经济形势囊中羞涩，在本周期的前25名捐助者中，有18个是共和党人，这是“公开的秘密”网站显示的数据，他们比民主党人多花了2亿美元。亿万富翁占共和党捐款总额的20%，相比之下，民主党占14.5%。
So, what do they expect for their money?
那么，他们对自己花的钱有什么期望？
For some, it's ideological. They see the U.S. declining and want the changes they think will make it better.
对一些人来说，这是意识形态问题。他们看到美国正在衰落，希望出现新变化让美国变得更好。
But, behind the politics, they get access to the Party as a whole, to the candidates who will owe them if they are elected. A system that has allowed them to protect their interests and earn more money. So in essence, it's an investment. Ironically, billionaires who have everything, and lower middle class working people who have less and less each day, often support the same candidates.
但是，政治意图背后，其实是他们能借此接触到整个政党，接触到候选人。后者一旦当选，将视其为恩人。这一制度允许捐赠者保护自己的利益并赚更多钱。所以在本质上，这是一场投资。讽刺的是，拥有一切的亿万富翁和每天拥有越来越少资产的中下层工人阶级常常支持同一候选人。
But in the end, the idea that unelected individuals can have such power doesn't seem very democratic, nor have their billions resulted in a better society. Do they have your interests at heart? I would say no.
最终是幕后操盘手获得权力的这种方式，似乎并不民主 ，他们的亿万财富也没有创造一个更好的社会。他们是否将你的利益放在心上了呢？我想说，没有 。
What happens after the election? That is the problem, some of the actors will change but the play will remain the same. The billionaires will want a return on their investment while problems, years in the making, remain unsolved, not only because of the numerous divisions but because of the very structure of the political system itself which does not allow focused consistent policies to be implemented.
选举后会发生什么呢？这就是问题所在。演员会变，但戏码却不会变。亿万富翁们希望投资得到回报，而多年来的积弊却仍未解决，不仅仅是因为存在太多的分歧，而在于政治制度本身的结构不允许执行有重点的一贯政策。
In conclusion, America's problems have been a long time in the making, and needs more than a political merry-go-round to solve. It doesn't matter who wins, Democrats or Republicans. The political, economic, and social divisions won't be solved, more likely they will be exacerbated as those in power look to distract the people from their inability to address and solve the real issues. Without focused planning and action, the U.S. debt will continue to grow. De-dollarization of the global financial system will continue. Inflation will go on, the U.S. stock market will drop. The recession will turn into a depression. And those with the means will continue to influence elections based on their personal and economic views and interests.
综上所述，美国的问题由来已久，不是你方唱罢我登场就能解决的。民主党或共和党谁赢都不重要。政治、经济和社会分歧不会得到解决。更有可能的是，情况会恶化。因为掌权者希望转移人们的注意力，使大家不去关注和解决真正的问题。没有集中的计划和行动，美国债务将继续增长，全球金融体系会持续去美元化。通胀将会继续，美国股市会大跌。衰退会变为大萧条，而那些有手段的人将继续根据其个人的经济立场和利益来影响选举。
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