美国,一个持枪文化浓厚的国家,枪击事件频发。 据统计,2020年美国共有超过4万人死于枪击,平均每天达110多人。 2020年美国共发生611起大规模枪击事件,平均每天超过1.6起。 2020年美国枪支销量高达2300万支,比2019年激增64%。 Gun violence, a problem that has haunted the U.S. for a fairly long period of time, has been more prominent during the past year. According to statistics, over 40,000 Americans were killed due to gun violence in 2020, an average of more than 110 persons per day. A total of 611 mass shootings occurred in 2020, an average of more than 1.6 cases per day. More than 23 million firearms were sold in 2020, a 64 percent increase from 2019. 美国枪支泛滥究竟有多严重 How serious is the gun problem in the U.S.? 据瑞士日内瓦高级国际关系与发展学院“轻型武器调查”结果显示,2017年美国平民持枪量就超过了3.93亿支,而美国当时总人口为3.26亿,是世界上人均持枪数量最多的国家。 据美国联邦调查局最新数据显示,仅2021年3月份就约有470万美国人接受了“购枪背景调查”,比2月增加了36%。 美国枪支泛滥和枪支暴力产生了严重后果。一方面,对暴力威胁的担忧导致许多人纷纷买枪自卫;另一方面,枪支泛滥又是造成暴力犯罪居高不下的重要原因。 A study by Switzerland-based Small Arms Survey estimated that American civilians owned over 393 million firearms in 2017. With a total population of about 326 million, the U.S. ranked first in firearms per capita in the world. According to the latest data of the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, nearly 4.7 million Americans underwent background checks in connection with purchasing guns in March 2021, an increase of 36% from February. The huge number of guns and gun violence has caused serious consequences. On one hand, concerns about the threat of gun violence have led many people to buy guns for self-defense. On the other hand, the huge number of guns is itself becoming a critical concern for the high level of gun-related crimes. 那么,美国民众的控枪意愿如何?So what do Americans prefer for gun laws? 据盖洛普2020年最新调查显示,57%的美国人支持更严格的枪支销售法律,34%的人希望相关法律保持不变,9%的人希望相关法律更宽松。 22%的共和党人支持更严格的枪支销售法律,这在过去20年里是最低的,比2019年下降了14%。 与此同时,要求加强枪支管制的民主党人和独立人士的比例接近盖洛普自2000年以来调查的高点。两党在该问题上63个点的分歧是过去二十年来的最高记录。 According to a Gallup poll, the latest majority of 57% Americans call for stricter laws covering the sale of firearms. About 34% of U.S. adults prefer that gun laws be kept as they are now, while 9% would like them to be less strict. The current 22% of Republicans favoring stricter laws for gun sales is the lowest for the group over the past 20 years and represents a 14% drop since 2019. Meanwhile, the percentages of Democrats and independents calling for more gun control are near the highest recorded by Gallup since 2000. The 63-point gap between Republicans and Democrats is the highest on record over the past two decades. 超过一半的美国人支持控枪,但为何控枪如此难?More than half of Americans support stricter firearm sales law, but why is it so hard to control guns in America? 第一,美国宪法第二修正案规定,“纪律严明的民兵乃保障自由国家的安全所必需,人民持有与携带武器的权利不容侵犯”。 这使得美国人相信,持枪权是一项至关重要的权利。美国44个州的宪法中都明确规定要保护公民持枪的权利。然而,修宪在美国门槛很高,且过程复杂、漫长。试图通过修宪禁枪,成功的可能性微乎其微。 First, it is stipulated in the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution that, “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” So it makes Americans believe that owning guns is their right. The constitutions of 44 states in America clearly stipulate that citizens' rights to hold guns should be protected. However, the constitutional amendment in the United States is very complicated and the process is lengthy. It is almost unlikely to ban guns through constitutional amendments. 第二,近几十年来,美国政治“极化”现象严重。民主党支持枪支管制,主张实行更为严格的枪支管制政策,共和党则反对枪支管制。枪支管控已成为总统和国会选举的主要议题之一,并已成为决定竞选成败的重要因素。 美国参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔就表示,“共和党人和民主党人之间在如何应对枪支暴力问题上存在着根深蒂固的哲学差异”,并且通过立法实现更严格的枪支管控一直都很复杂。 Second, political polarization in the United States has been serious in recent decades. The Democrats support gun control and advocate stricter gun control policies while the Republicans oppose gun control. Gun control has become one of the main issues in presidential and congressional elections, and has become an important factor in determining the success of elections. U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said there are "deep-seated philosophical differences between Republicans and Democrats about how to deal with gun violence" and that legislative solutions have been perplexing for stricter gun control. 第三,利益集团是美国控枪的最大阻力。在美国,反对控枪的利益集团有全国步枪协会、全国射击运动协会、全国枪支权利协会等12个组织,这其中影响力最大的就是美国全国步枪协会。 该协会1871年成立,号称是美国历史最悠久、规模最大的民权维护组织。它拥有超过550万的注册会员。美国曾经有八位总统都是它的会员。 据非盈利组织The Trace有关统计数据,全国步枪协会在2016年总统选举中捐出超过5000万美元竞选资金给特朗普及其他共和党参议院候选人。近年来,以全国步枪协会为代表的美国反枪支管制利益集团,几乎封杀了所有控枪法案,使美国枪支管制举步维艰。 Third, interest lobby groups are the greatest resistance to gun control in the United States, including the National Rifle Association (NRA), the National Shooting Sports Association, and the National Association for Gun Rights. Among them, the most influential one is the NRA. NRA was established in 1871 and is known as the oldest and largest civil rights protection organization in the United States. It has more than 5.5 million registered members. Eight former presidents of the United States have been its members. According to American non-profit journalism outlet The Trace, NRA spent more than $50 million to back Donald Trump and several Republican Senate candidates in 2016. In recent years, those interest groups represented by the NRA have lobbied and blocked almost all gun control laws, making gun control more difficult. 在造成十人死亡的科罗拉多枪击事件发生后,美国总统拜登呼吁国会通过一项控枪法案,禁止攻击性武器的销售,并消除背景调查系统中的漏洞。 美国国会会如拜登所愿通过这项法案吗?我们拭目以待。 U.S. President Joe Biden has called for a ban on assault weapons and close the loopholes on the background check system after a mass shooting which left 10 people dead in Colorado in March. Will the U.S. Congress pass the bills as Biden wishes? Let’s wait and see. 推荐阅读:真相放大镜 | 数据安全背后的三方博弈 真相放大镜|美国亚裔为何屡受歧视?