AER, AEJ上用准自然实验识别的实证文章有哪些？含程序和code, 不看至少需要收藏一下！

凡是搞计量经济的，都关注这个号了

稿件：econometrics666@126.com

Attention：面向海内外三、四年级本科、研究生开放Research assistant职位，现阶段主要工作是翻译及汇编计量经济学前沿文献和实证技术（包括Stata,R,Python等软件），而你能得到远超过你同学所拥有的学术人脉资源。符合如下要求的伙伴可以将简历发送到邮箱：econometrics666@126.com。

Requirement：中英文读写能力过关，做事细心严谨，能在规定时间内完成项目，非诚勿扰。

1. Sampat, Bhaven, and Heidi L. Williams. 2019. "How Do Patents Affect Follow-On Innovation? Evidence from the Human Genome." American Economic Review, 109 (1): 203-36.

We investigate whether patents on human genes have affected follow-on scientific research and product development. Using administrative data on successful and unsuccessful patent applications submitted to the US Patent and Trademark Office, we link the exact gene sequences claimed in each application with data measuring follow-on scientific research and commercial investments. Using this data, we document novel evidence of selection into patenting: patented genes appear more valuable—prior to being patented—than non-patented genes. This evidence of selection motivates two quasi-experimental approaches, both of which suggest that on average gene patents have had no quantitatively important effect on follow-on innovation.

2. Akee, Randall, William Copeland, E. Jane Costello, and Emilia Simeonova. 2018. "How Does Household Income Affect Child Personality Traits and Behaviors?" American Economic Review, 108 (3): 775-827.

We examine the effects of a quasi-experimental unconditional household income transfer on child emotional and behavioral health and personality traits. Using longitudinal data, we find that there are large beneficial effects on children's emotional and behavioral health and personality traits during adolescence. We find evidence that these effects are most pronounced for children who start out with the lowest initial endowments. The income intervention also results in improvements in parental relationships which we interpret as a potential mechanism behind our findings.

3. Diamond, Rebecca, Tim McQuade, and Franklin Qian. 2019. "The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco." American Economic Review, 109 (9): 3365-94.

Using a 1994 law change, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in the assignment of rent control in San Francisco to study its impacts on tenants and landlords. Leveraging new data tracking individuals' migration, we find rent control limits renters' mobility by 20 percent and lowers displacement from San Francisco. Landlords treated by rent control reduce rental housing supplies by 15 percent by selling to owner-occupants and redeveloping buildings. Thus, while rent control prevents displacement of incumbent renters in the short run, the lost rental housing supply likely drove up market rents in the long run, ultimately undermining the goals of the law.

4. Monte, Ferdinando, Stephen J. Redding, and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. 2018. "Commuting, Migration, and Local Employment Elasticities." American Economic Review, 108 (12): 3855-90.

We provide theory and evidence that the elasticity of local employment to a labor demand shock is heterogeneous depending on the commuting openness of the local labor market. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model that incorporates spatial linkages in goods markets (trade) and factor markets (commuting and migration). We quantify this model to match the observed gravity equation relationships for trade and commuting. We find that empirically-observed reductions in commuting costs generate welfare gains of around 3.3 percent. We provide separate quasi-experimental evidence in support of the model's predictions using the location decisions of million dollar plants.

5. Rothstein, Jesse. 2017. "Measuring the Impacts of Teachers: Comment." American Economic Review, 107 (6): 1656-84.

Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014a, b) study value-added (VA) measures of teacher effectiveness. CFR (2014a) exploits teacher switching as a quasi-experiment, concluding that student sorting creates negligible bias in VA scores. CFR (2014b) finds VA scores are useful proxies for teachers' effects on students' long-run outcomes. I successfully reproduce each in North Carolina data. But I find that the quasi-experiment is invalid, as teacher switching is correlated with changes in student preparedness. Adjusting for this, I find moderate bias in VA scores, perhaps 10-35 percent as large, in variance terms, as teachers' causal effects. Long-run results are sensitive to controls and cannot support strong conclusions.

6. Howell, Sabrina T. 2017. "Financing Innovation: Evidence from R&D Grants." American Economic Review,107 (4): 1136-64.

Governments regularly subsidize new ventures to spur innovation. This paper conducts the first large-sample, quasi-experimental evaluation of R&D subsidies. I use data on ranked applicants to the US Department of Energy's SBIR grant program. An early-stage award approximately doubles the probability that a firm receives subsequent venture capital and has large, positive impacts on patenting and revenue. These effects are stronger for more financially constrained firms. Certification, where the award contains information about firm quality, likely does not explain the grant effect. Instead, the grants are useful because they fund technology prototyping.

7. Deschênes, Olivier, Michael Greenstone, and Joseph S. Shapiro. 2017. "Defensive Investments and the Demand for Air Quality: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program." American Economic Review, 107 (10): 2958-89.

The demand for air quality depends on health impacts and defensive investments, but little research assesses the empirical importance of defenses. A rich quasi-experiment suggests that the Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Budget Program (NBP), a cap-and-trade market, decreased NOx emissions, ambient ozone concentrations, pharmaceutical expenditures, and mortality rates. The annual reductions in pharmaceutical purchases, a key defensive investment, and mortality are valued at about 1.3 billion, respectively, suggesting that defenses are over one-third of willingness-to-pay for reductions in NOx emissions. Further, estimates indicate that the NBP's benefits easily exceed its costs and that NOx reductions have substantial benefits.

8. Tumen, Semih. 2016. "The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Turkey." American Economic Review, 106 (5): 456-60.

The Syrian Conflict generated forced immigration from northern Syria to southeastern Turkey. Arrival of refugees resembles a natural experiment, which offers good opportunities to study the economic impact of immigration. I study three main outcomes: labor markets, consumer prices, and housing rents. I document moderate employment losses among native informal workers, which suggests that they are partly substituted by refugees. Prices of the items produced in informal labor intensive sectors declined due to labor cost advantages generated by refugee inflows. Finally, refugee inflows increased the rents of higher quality housing units, while there is no effect on lower quality units.

9. Sequeira, Sandra. 2016. "Corruption, Trade Costs, and Gains from Tariff Liberalization: Evidence from Southern Africa." American Economic Review, 106 (10): 3029-63.

This paper exploits quasi-experimental variation in tariffs in southern Africa to estimate trade elasticities. Traded quantities respond only weakly to a 30 percent reduction in the average nominal tariff rate. Trade flow data combined with primary data on firm behavior and bribe payments suggest that corruption is a potential explanation for the observed low elasticities. In contexts of pervasive corruption, even small bribes can significantly reduce tariffs, making tariff liberalization schemes less likely to affect the extensive and the intensive margins of firms' import behavior. The tariff liberalization scheme is, however, still associated with improved incentives to accurately report quantities of imported goods, and with a significant reduction in bribe transfers from importers to public officials.

10. Yagan, Danny. 2015. "Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut."American Economic Review, 105 (12): 3531-63.

This paper tests whether the 2003 dividend tax cut—one of the largest reforms ever to a US capital tax rate—stimulated corporate investment and increased labor earnings, using a quasi-experimental design and US corporate tax returns from years 1996-2008. I estimate that the tax cut caused zero change in corporate investment and employee compensation. Economically, the statistical precision challenges leading estimates of the cost-of-capital elasticity of investment, or undermines models in which dividend tax reforms affect the cost of capital. Either way, it may be difficult to implement an alternative dividend tax cut that has substantially larger near-term effects. (JEL C72, C78, C91)

11. Chetty, Raj, John N. Friedman, and Jonah E. Rockoff. 2014. "Measuring the Impacts of Teachers I: Evaluating Bias in Teacher Value-Added Estimates." American Economic Review, 104 (9): 2593-2632.

Are teachers' impacts on students' test scores ("value-added") a good measure of their quality? One reason this question has sparked debate is disagreement about whether value-added (VA) measures provide unbiased estimates of teachers' causal impacts on student achievement. We test for bias in VA using previously unobserved parent characteristics and a quasi-experimental design based on changes in teaching staff. Using school district and tax records for more than one million children, we find that VA models which control for a student's prior test scores exhibit little bias in forecasting teachers' impacts on student achievement.

12. Acconcia, Antonio, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Saverio Simonelli. 2014. "Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment." American Economic Review, 104 (7): 2185-2209.

A law issued to combat political corruption and Mafia infiltration of city councils in Italy has resulted in episodes of large, unanticipated, temporary contractions in local public spending. Using these episodes as instruments, we estimate the output multiplier of spending cuts at provincial level—controlling for national monetary and fiscal policy, and holding the tax burden of local residents constant—to be 1.5. Assuming that lagged spending is exogenous to current output brings the estimate of the overall multiplier up to 1.9. These results suggest that local spending adjustment may be quite consequential for local activity.

13. Currie, Janet, Michael Greenstone, and Enrico Moretti. 2011. "Superfund Cleanups and Infant Health."American Economic Review, 101 (3): 435-41.

We are the first to examine the effect of Superfund cleanups on infant health rather than focusing on proximity to a site. We study singleton births to mothers residing within 5km of a Superfund site between 1989-2003 in five large states. Our "difference in differences" approach compares birth outcomes before and after a site clean-up for mothers who live within 2,000 meters of the site and those who live between 2,000-5,000 meters of a site. We find that proximity to a Superfund site before cleanup is associated with a 20 to 25% increase in the risk of congenital anomalies.

14. Barsbai, Toman, Hillel Rapoport, Andreas Steinmayr, and Christoph Trebesch. 2017. "The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 9 (3): 36-69.

Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the aftermath of the Russian crisis of 1998 strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade, eventually contributing to the fall of the last Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasi-experimental context and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia.

15. Grembi, Veronica, Tommaso Nannicini, and Ugo Troiano. 2016. "Do Fiscal Rules Matter?" American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8 (3): 1-30.

Fiscal rules are laws aimed at reducing the incentive to accumulate debt, and many countries adopt them to discipline local governments. Yet, their effectiveness is disputed because of commitment and enforcement problems. We study their impact applying a quasi-experimental design in Italy. In 1999, the central government imposed fiscal rules on municipal governments, and in 2001 relaxed them below 5,000 inhabitants. We exploit the before/after and discontinuous policy variation, and show that relaxing fiscal rules increases deficits and lowers taxes. The effect is larger if the mayor can be reelected, the number of parties is higher, and voters are older.

16. Tewari, Ishani. 2014. "The Distributive Impacts of Financial Development: Evidence from Mortgage Markets during US Bank Branch Deregulation." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 6 (4): 175-96.

Well-functioning credit markets play a key role in boosting overall economic growth, but their impact on distributional outcomes is much less clear. I use a quasi-experimental setting provided by branch banking deregulation, an important episode of US financial development, to study the distributive impacts of finance. Following removal of geographic restrictions on banks in the 1980s and early 1990s, mortgage access increased for lower-middle income groups, young, and also black households. These effects were driven by commercial banks, the only financial institutions subject to the policy. Banks' new screening technologies may have been responsible for this expansion of credit.

17. Kaboski, Joseph P., and Robert M. Townsend. 2012. "The Impact of Credit on Village Economies." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4 (2): 98-133.

This paper evaluates the short- and longer term impact of Thailand's "Million Baht Village Fund" program, among the largest scale government microfinance iniatives in the world, using pre- and post-program panel data and quasi-experimental cross-village variation in credit per household. We find that the village funds have increased total short-term credit, consumption, agricultural investment, and income growth (from business and labor), but decreased overall asset growth. We also find a positive impact on wages, an important general equilibrium effect. The findings are broadly consistent qualitatively with models of credit-constrained household behavior and models of intermediation and growth. (JEL D14, G21, O12, O16, O18)

18. Clots-Figueras, Irma. 2012. "Are Female Leaders Good for Education? Evidence from India." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4 (1): 212-44.

This paper shows that the gender of politicians affects the educational levels of individuals who grow up in the districts where these politicians are elected. A unique dataset collected on politicians in India is matched with individual data by cohort and district of residence. The political data allow the identification of close elections between women and men, which yield quasi-experimental election outcomes used to estimate the causal effect of the gender of politicians. Increasing female political representation increases the probability that an individual will attain primary education in urban areas, but not in rural areas, and not in the sample as a whole. (JEL D72, I20, J16, 015, 017)

19. Lucas, Adrienne M. 2010. "Malaria Eradication and Educational Attainment: Evidence from Paraguay and Sri Lanka." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2 (2): 46-71.

Mid-twentieth century malaria eradication campaigns largely eliminated malaria from Paraguay and Sri Lanka. Using these interventions as quasi-experiments, I estimate malaria's effect on lifetime female educational attainment through the combination of pre-existing geographic variation in malarial intensity and cohort exposure based on the timing of the national anti-malaria campaigns. The estimates from Sri Lanka and Paraguay are similar and indicate that malaria eradication increased years of educational attainment and literacy. The similarity of the estimates across the countries reinforces our confidence in the validity of the identification strategy. (JEL I12, I18, I21, J16, O15, O18)

20. Akee, Randall K. Q., William E. Copeland, Gordon Keeler, Adrian Angold, and E. Jane Costello. 2010."Parents' Incomes and Children's Outcomes: A Quasi-experiment Using Transfer Payments from Casino Profits." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2 (1): 86-115.

We examine the role an exogenous increase in household income, due to a government transfer unrelated to household characteristics, plays in children's long-run outcomes. Children in affected households have higher levels of education in their young adulthood and a lower incidence of criminality for minor offenses. Effects differ by initial household poverty status. An additional $4,000 per year for the poorest households increases educational attainment by one year at age 21, and reduces the chances of committing a minor crime by 22 percent for 16 and 17 year olds. Our evidence suggests improved parental quality is a likely mechanism for the change. (JEL D14, H23, I32, I38, J13)

21. Egger, Peter, and Marko Koethenbuerger. 2010. "Government Spending and Legislative Organization: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Germany." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2 (4): 200-212.

This paper presents empirical evidence of a positive effect of council size on government spending using a dataset of 2,056 municipalities in the German state of Bavaria over a period of 21 years. We apply a regression discontinuity design to avoid an endogeneity bias. In particular, we exploit discontinuities in the legal rule that relate population size of a municipality in order to council size to identify a causal relationship between council size and public spending, and find a robust positive impact of council size on spending. Moreover, we show that municipalities primarily adjust current expenditure in response to a rise in council size. (JEL D72, H72, R51)

22. Leung, Pauline, and Christopher O'Leary. 2020. "Unemployment Insurance and Means-Tested Program Interactions: Evidence from Administrative Data." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 12 (2): 159-92.

We study the ways in which unemployment insurance (UI) benefits interact with other elements of the social safety net around job losses. We exploit a cutoff for UI eligibility, based on a workers' highest quarterly earnings in the past year, to generate quasi-experimental variation in UI receipt. We find that UI receipt cuts welfare (TANF) receipt by half among low-earning UI applicants but has no impact on SNAP or Medicaid usage. However, because welfare participation is low in this population, overall crowdout is small. In the quarter following layoff, UI increases total income by 55 percent (including labor earnings and transfers).

23. Denning, Jeffrey T. 2017. "College on the Cheap: Consequences of Community College Tuition Reductions."American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 9 (2): 155-88.

This paper examines the effects of community college tuition on college enrollment. I exploit quasi-experimental variation from discounts for community college tuition in Texas that were expanded over time and across geography for identification. Community college enrollment in the first year after high school increased by 5.1 percentage points for each $1,000 decrease in tuition, which implies an elasticity of -0.29. Lower tuition also increased transfer from community colleges to universities. Marginal community college enrollees induced to attend by reduced tuition have similar graduation rates as average community college enrollees.

24. Guceri, Irem, and Li Liu. 2019. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Incentives for R&D: Quasi-experimental Evidence."American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11 (1): 266-91.

We exploit a 2008 UK policy reform that increased the tax incentives for R&D in medium-sized enterprises relative to large ones, to overcome the endogeneity of exposure to such tax credits. We estimate a difference-in-difference design on the universe of corporation tax filings in the United Kingdom, combined with other datasets. We find a positive and significant impact of tax credits for R&D, implying a user-cost elasticity estimate of around −1.6. This magnitude implies around $1 in additional private R&D spending per dollar foregone in tax revenue.

25. Richards, Michael R., and D. Sebastian Tello-Trillo. 2019. "Public Spillovers from Private Insurance Contracting: Physician Responses to Managed Care." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11 (4): 375-403.

Managed care is rebounding as more emphasis is placed on cost containment. These efforts may benefit consumers but challenge providers; however, empirical evidence on how supply-side managed care influences physicians is incomplete. We leverage a quasi-experiment in which a commercial insurer imposed a new contract regime on behavioral health providers in response to recent policy shifts. We demonstrate spillovers in the form of negative effects on local physician supply and positive effects on Medicare and Medicaid participation in areas where the insurer has market power. Commercially insured patients are also not obviously harmed but receive less intense services in some settings.

26. Huet-Vaughn, Emiliano. 2019. "Stimulating the Vote: ARRA Road Spending and Vote Share." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11 (1): 292-316.

This paper estimates the impact of public good spending on voting behavior in the United States, using a quasi-experimental design and the distribution of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) road projects in New Jersey. I find an approximate 1.5 percentage point increase in Democratic Party presidential vote share in areas close to highway and bridge expenditures. I consider two alternative mechanisms: one, a salience mechanism whereby spending and associated "funded-by" signage affect political preferences; the other, a possible political multiplier effect whereby stimulus spending improves local economic outcomes, generating incumbent votes. Evidence is inconsistent with the later explanation.

27. Andersson, Julius J. 2019. "Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions: Sweden as a Case Study." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11 (4): 1-30.

This quasi-experimental study is the first to find a significant causal effect of carbon taxes on emissions, empirically analyzing the implementation of a carbon tax and a value-added tax on transport fuel in Sweden. After implementation, carbon dioxide emissions from transport declined almost 11 percent, with the largest share due to the carbon tax alone, relative to a synthetic control unit constructed from a comparable group of OECD countries. Furthermore, the carbon tax elasticity of demand for gasoline is three times larger than the price elasticity. Policy evaluations of carbon taxes, using price elasticities to simulate emission reductions, may thus significantly underestimate their true effect.

28. Ohrn, Eric. 2018. "The Effect of Corporate Taxation on Investment and Financial Policy: Evidence from the DPAD." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10 (2): 272-301.

This study estimates the investment, financing, and payout responses to variation in a firm's effective corporate income tax rate in the United States. I exploit quasi-experimental variation created by the Domestic Production Activities Deduction, a corporate tax expenditure created in 2005. A 1 percentage point reduction in tax rates increases investment by 4.7 percent of installed capital, increases payouts by 0.3 percent of sales, and decreases debt by 5.3 percent of total assets. These estimates suggest that lower corporate tax rates and faster accelerated depreciation each stimulate a similar increase in investment, per dollar in lost revenue.

如果对准自然实验等方法感兴趣，可以到社群交流访问讨论。

关于一些因果推断的合辑：①关于各种因果识别方法的120份经典实证文献汇总”，②哈佛大学新修订完成的因果推断经典大作免费下载！附数据和code，③因果推断的统计方法总结, 177份文献，④政策评估的计量方法综述, 包括最新因果推断方法，⑤在教育领域使用IV, RDD, DID, PSM多吗? 使用具体文献，⑥看完顶级期刊文章后, 整理了内生性处理小册子，⑤工具变量精辟解释, 保证你一辈子都忘不了，⑦DID, 合成控制, 匹配, RDD四种方法比较, 适用范围和特征，⑧关于双重差分法DID的32篇精选Articles专辑！⑨关于(模糊)断点回归设计的100篇精选Articles专辑！⑩匹配方法(matching)操作指南, 值得收藏的16篇文章等，⑪MIT广为流传的政策"处理效应"读本，⑫DID的研究动态和政策评估中应用的文献综述，⑬最新政策效应评估的四种方法，⑭政策效应评估的基本问题。

下面这些短链接文章属于合集，可以收藏起来阅读，不然以后都找不到了。