[E339]Machine earning|经济学人
本文音频及原文摘自杂志The Economist《经济学人》2016年第5期，Finance and economics版块。
Robots v humans
Jobs in poor countries may be especially vulnerable to automation
Jan 30th 2016
BILL BURR, an American entertainer, was dismayed when he first came across an automated checkout[自动结帐]. “I thought I was a comedian; evidently I also work in a grocery store[杂货店],” he complained. “I can’t believe I forgot my apron['eɪpr(ə)n][围裙].” Those whose jobs are at risk of being displaced by machines are no less grumpy. A study published in 2013 by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University stoked anxieties[引发焦虑] when it found that 47% of jobs in America were vulnerable to automation. Machines are mastering ever more intricate['ɪntrɪkət][复杂的;错综的,缠结的] tasks, such as translating texts or diagnosing illnesses. Robots are also becoming capable of manual labour[体力劳动;手工劳动] that hitherto[hɪðə'tuː; 'hɪðətuː][迄今；至今] could be carried out only by dexterous humans.
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▷ dismay [dɪs'meɪ]
a) a feeling of unhappiness and disappointment
b) If you discover late Sunday night that the dog really did eat your homework, you might cry out in dismay. Dismay describes an emotional state of alarm, fear, or serious disappointment.
n. 沮丧,灰心;惊慌
vt. 使沮丧;使惊慌
I was dismayed to discover that he'd lied.
发现他说了谎，我很失望。
▷ grumpy ['grʌmpɪ]
a) easily annoyed and complaining
b) When your friend suggests a restaurant but you’re in a bad mood so you say “That’s a stupid restaurant” — even though you don’t really mind it — then you’re being grumpy, meaning irritable or grouchy.
adj. 脾气暴躁的;性情乖戾的
n. 脾气坏的人;爱抱怨的人
I hadn't had enough sleep and was feeling a bit grumpy.
我睡眠不足，所以感到有点烦躁。
▷ dexterous ['dekst(ə)rəs]
a) If you're dexterous, you're good with your hands. To be dexterous is an essential trait for knitters and sleight-of-hand magicians.
adj. 灵巧的;敏捷的;惯用右手的
a dexterous movement
敏捷的动作
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Yet America is the high ground[处于有利的地位;优势] when it comes to automation, according to a new report* from the same pair along with other authors. The proportion of threatened jobs is much greater in poorer countries: 69% in India, 77% in China and as high as 85% in Ethiopia[埃塞俄比亚]. There are two reasons. First, jobs in such places are generally less skilled. Second, there is less capital tied up in old ways of doing things[投放在传统的做事方式上的资金比较少]. Driverless taxis[无人驾驶出租车] might take off[开始；开始流行；突然受到广泛欢迎，突然被广泛使用] more quickly in a new city in China, for instance, than in an old one in Europe.
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▷ tie up
投放(钱、资金、储蓄等)使不能移做他用，搁死，把(资金等)冻结于某项用途之中，把(财产)置于不能出售(或转让)的条件(或约束)之下
She has tied up her cash in the stock market.
她的现金已搁死在股市上了。
My money is tied up in a trust fund.
我的钱搁死在一笔信托基金上了。
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Attracting investment in labour-intensive[劳动密集型的]manufacturing[制造业;工业] has been a route to riches[通往财富的道路] for many developing countries, including China. But having a surplus of cheap labour[廉价劳动力过剩] is becoming less of a lure to manufacturers. An investment in industrial robots can be repaid[偿还;报答] in less than two years. This is a particular worry for the poor and underemployed in Africa and India, where industrialisation has stalled at low levels of income[停滞在较低的收入水平]—a phenomenon dubbed[被称为的] “premature deindustrialisation[过早去工业化]” by Dani Rodrik of Harvard University.
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Rich countries have more of the sorts of jobs that are harder for machines to replicate—those that require original ideas[新颖的想法] (creating advertising[创造广告]), or complex social interactions[复杂的社会交互/交往] (arguing a case in court), or a blend of analysis and dexterity (open-heart surgery[心脏直视手术;体外循环心脏手术]). But poorer countries are not powerless[并非无能为力]. Just because a job is deemed[被视为;被认为] at risk from automation, it does not necessarily mean it will be replaced soon, notes Mr Frey.
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The cheapness of labour[廉价劳动力] in relation to capital[资金/资本] affects the rate of automation. Passing laws that make it less costly to hire and fire workers is likely to slow its advance. Scale also matters[规模也很重要]: farms in many poor countries are often too small to benefit from machines that have been around for decades. Consumer preferences[消费者偏好,消费偏爱/喜好] are a third barrier. Mr Burr is hardly alone in hating automated checkouts, which explains why 3m cashiers are still employed in America.
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* “Technology At Work v2.0: The Future is Not What It Used to Be”, by the Oxford Martin School and Citigroup
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以上言论不代表本人立场，摘自《经济学人》杂志，仅外语学习之用。查看来源请点击下方的“阅读原文”。