【TED演讲】我们如何设计更好的经济

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What does it mean for a country to have a healthy economy?
一个国家的良性经济是指什么？

What does a healthy economy even look like?
良性的经济看起来什么样？

Does it look like this?
像这样吗？

What about like this?
还是这样呢？

Economist Kate Raworth shared a pretty interesting answer to this question on the TED Interview podcast.
经济学家凯特·拉瓦斯在TED播客采访中，分享了一个非常有趣的理解。

And it challenges an idea that most economists take for granted.
这挑战了大部分经济学家所持的既定观点。

We live, particularly in the West, particularly in the last 150 years,
我们，特别是在西方，在近150年内处在的社会，

in a society that has a very strong belief that growth is the sign of progress.
坚定地认为增长是发展进步的象征。

And to a certain extent, it's true.
从某种角度来看，这是对的。

We love to see our kids grow.
我们对儿女的成长感到欣慰。

We love to see nature growing in spring.
我们喜爱春天自然界的生长。

Growth is a wonderful, healthy phase of life.
成长是生命中美妙、健康的一环。

But in our economies, it's like we've turned to Peter Pan economics, the economy that never wanted to grow up.
但在经济上，我们似乎选择了彼得·潘这类经济模式，一种不想成熟的经济。

It wanted to grow and grow and grow forever.
它只求永不停歇地增长，持续地增长。

And it becomes this permanent phase.
这便转化为了它的常态。

But we already know, in our own bodies, in our own lives, that there's another side to this metaphor of growth that we love so much.
但我们已经从身体里，在生命中得知，这种增长的比喻还有另一面。

If I told you, my friend had gone to the doctor.
如果我说，我的朋友去医生那儿。

And the doctor told her she had a growth, that already feels completely different.
医生说她体内长了个东西，这给人感觉就不一样了。

Because in the space of our own bodies, we know that when something tries to grow endlessly within this healthy, dynamic living whole,
因为在我们身体的局限内，我们知道，如果有什么东西要在这健康、动态的整体之内无止尽地生长，

it is a threat to the health of the whole.
它会对整体的健康产生威胁。

And we do everything we can to stop it.
而我们会用尽办法来阻止它。

But when we step into our economies, for some reason, we think that endless growth is progress.
但不知为何，当我们考虑经济时，我们便把无穷的增长视作进步。

And we are now running into severe problems because we are addicted to endless growth.
而我们现在遭遇了许多严重问题，也是因为我们对无边无尽的增长上瘾了。

Simon Kuznets, he was asked in the 1930s by US Congress to come up, for the first time, with a single number to measure the output of the economy.
经济学家赛门·库兹涅茨。在30年代首次被美国国会要求列出一个反映美国经济总产出的值。

America could say we produced so many tons of steel and so many bags of grain.
美国可以宣称它生产了这么多吨钢铁和这么多袋谷物。

But can we add it all together?
但能把它们加起来计算吗？

So they commissioned him to do this and he said: Yes, I can.
那么国会派赛门去做这个任务，他回答说，”嗯，可以的，

I can add it all together in one number.
我能把所有这些浓缩于一个数值。“

National income, what we now know as GDP.
这便是我们今天称为GDP的国民收入。

But he gave it with a caveat.
但他还给出忠告。

He said the welfare of a nation can scarcely be known from this number, don't mix it up with welfare, right?
他说国民的安康不怎么能通过这个数字来体现。不要把它与福利相提并论，对吧？

Because it tells us nothing about the unpaid caring work of parents, tells us nothing about the value that's created in communities.
因为它并没有反映父母的抚养行为，没有体现社区里形成的价值。

Because that's not priced.
因为这些都未标价。

And it's a measure of the flow of economic value.
此数值衡量经济的产量，

It tells us nothing about the living world, the forests, the mines that get run down in order to create this value.
却没有给出实际信息，关于人世间，森林里，和向下延伸，创造产值的矿井。

But the convenience, the temptation, of this single number was so great that politicians sort of tucked it in their armpit and carried right on.
但这个数值的便利性与其诱惑如此之大，以至于政治家们直接拿过去用了。

And we ended up in a horse race of pursuing GDP growth.
于是最终导致了互相比拼GDP的局面。

The dream is that GDP can keep on increasing, we can have increasing financial returns.
我们的梦想是GDP不停攀升，我们也会获得持续增长的经济效益，

But that we can decouple from using Earth's resources.
并且能够独立于地球的资源。

We can use less carbon and less metals, and minerals and plastics.
我们能够消耗更少的碳，更少的金属、矿产和塑料，

And we can use less of the Earth's land surface, and separate these two: ever rising GDP and falling resource use.
也会占用地球更少的表面积，并让无限上升的GDP与缩减的资源利用脱钩。

It's a fabulous dream; would that it would be true.
这是个美好的梦，能实现就好了。

We are at a time of climate emergency, of ecosystem collapse.
我们正经历着气候危机和生态系统失衡。

We need to radically reduce our use of Earth's resources.
我们需显著减少地球资源的利用。

And we're nowhere close to that.
但这还遥不可及。

So I offer it as a compass for 21st century prosperity.
于是我提出21世纪的繁荣方针。

And this compass, silly though it sounds, it looks like a doughnut with the hole in the middle.
听起来挺傻，但这个规划可以比作中间是洞的甜甜圈。

So imagine from the center of it, humanity's use of Earth's resources radiating out from the middle of that picture.
那么想象一下，人类对于地球资源的利用从它的中心向周围发散开来。

So in the hole, in the middle of the doughnut, that is the place where people don't have enough resources to meet the essentials of life.
那么在洞那儿，甜甜圈的中间，是人们没有足够资源以满足基本生活需求的地方。

It's where people don't have enough food or health care, or education or housing or gender equality or political voice or access to energy.
那里人们没有足够的食物、医疗卫生、教育条件、住房设施、性别平等、政治发言权和能源配额。

And we want to leave nobody in that hole.
我们不希望把任何人落在那个洞里。

We want to get everybody over a social foundation of well-being.
我们希望将所有人抬过温饱线，

So all people on this planet can lead lives of dignity and opportunity and community.
以至于地球上的全部人口能够过上有尊严、有机遇和有社区氛围的生活。

And in low income countries, it absolutely makes sense.
而在低收入的国家，这非常好理解，

Yes, let's see the economy grow in ways that invest in health and education and transport for all.
嗯，我们应该确保经济发展时投资医疗卫生，教育体系和服务所有人的交通设施。

That was a very 20th century project.
这是传统的20世纪愿景。

We're in the 21st century.
我们已经21世纪了。

We have Earth system scientists who started looking at the impact we were having on the climate, and the loss of soils and acid rain,
地球环境科学家们已经在研究人类活动对于气候、土质流失、酸雨、

and the hole in the ozone layer, and the collapse of species.
臭氧层空洞和物种消亡的影响。

And they said, hang on.
他们说，慢着，

We've been ignoring our planet.
我们在忽略我们的地球。

In the growing to meet human needs, we have ignored the fact that we are deeply dependent on this delicately balanced living planet.
在满足人类需求的增长之下，我们忽视了我们深度依赖巧妙平衡的星球生态的现实。

It's the only one we know of out there.
这儿是我们所知的唯独支持生命的地方。

And when we use Earth's resources in such a way that we begin to push ourselves beyond the living capacities of this planet,
而当我们对于地球资源的压榨开始超出其生态承载力极限的时候，

we are literally undermining the life supporting systems on which we depend.
我们便在破坏我们赖之以生存的生命支持系统。

So, hang on, just as there's an inner limit of resource use.
那么，就如存在着资源利用的“下限”。

And we call out poverty and deprivation.
我们无比重视贫困的现象。

There's an outer limit of humanity's resource use.
还有一条人类资源利用的外边界。

That's ecological degradation.
这便是生态摧残。

And we are breaking down this planet on which we depend.
而我们在让我们依赖的地球崩盘。

So there you get the doughnut, you get the inside, which is leave nobody behind in the hole.
那么这是甜甜圈，记着里面，别把任何人丢在那儿。

But don't overshoot the outer ring either.
但也别越出外围。

And so the shape of progress is fundamentally changed.
这样一来，发展的模式会从根本改变。

It's no longer this ever rising line exponential growth, that we hear about in the financial news all the time.
不再是我们新闻里一直听闻的持续上走的指数增长，

It's balance.
而是达到平衡。

To me, a source of real hope is that we deeply understand this at the level of our body.
对我而言，真正的希望来源于我们从生理的角度理解。

You go to the doctor, the doctor will say, have enough food, but not too much, enough water, oxygen, exercise, sleep, anything you like, have enough,
你去看医生，医生会说，你要摄取足够的养分，但要适量，充足的水分、氧气、锻炼、睡眠，任何你需要的，这些足够就行，

but not too much.
不要过量。

Our health lies in balance.
我们的健康之本是平衡。

And if we can take that metaphor from the human body to the planetary body,
如果我们能把这个来自人体的比喻联系到地球这个行星体，

we give ourselves a cracking chance of understanding the deep interdependence of our world.
我们便还有一丝渺茫的希望以认识到我们世界互相依存的密切性。